Jerome model in New Jersey: Clinton is in the lead
The Jerome model released an updated prediction of the election result. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 57.7% for Clinton and 42.3% for Trump in New Jersey.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they may contain large errors. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, one should consult combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.
Results compared to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models in New Jersey sees Clinton at 57.3% of the two-party vote. Relative to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 0.4 percentage points lower.
The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's forecast
The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 0.1 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 57.6% in New Jersey. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 4.6 percentage points higher.