Jerome model in New Hampshire: Clinton with comfortable lead

The Jerome model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model expects that Clinton will achieve 54.1% of the two-party vote share in New Hampshire, while Trump will end up with 45.9%.

In New Hampshire, the popular vote is often close. This is why the state is commonly considered a battleground state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they can contain large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results vs. other econometric models

Clinton can currently count on 52.3% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in New Hampshire. Compared to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.8 percentage points lower.

The Jerome model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 53.6% of the two-party vote in New Hampshire, which is 0.5 percentage points below the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 1.0 percentage point higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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