Jerome model in Nebraska: Trump with clear lead
The Jerome model released an updated forecast of the election result. The model's forecast is that Clinton will obtain 41.6% of the two-party vote share in Nebraska, while Trump will win 58.4%.
Putting the results in context
Single econometric models should be treated with caution, as they often contain substantial biases. Rather, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
Trump can currently count on 61.3% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Nebraska. Compared to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 2.9 percentage points higher.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 2.7 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 61.1% in Nebraska. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 11.5 percentage points higher.