Minnesota: Jerome model shows Clinton in the lead

The Jerome model provided an updated forecast of the election result. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 58.5% for Clinton and 41.5% for Trump in Minnesota.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they can contain large errors. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, one should rely on combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of Minnesota econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 55.1%. This value is 3.5 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Jerome model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 4.7 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 53.8% in Minnesota. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 5.4 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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