Jerome model in Michigan: Clinton is in the lead
The Jerome model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to this model, Clinton will achieve 55.1% of the two-party vote share in Michigan, whereas Trump will win 44.9%.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. In general, don't focus too much on the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, forecasting research recommends to rely on combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes different methods and data.
Results compared to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models in Michigan has Clinton at 53.8% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.3 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Jerome model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 1.3 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 53.8% in Michigan. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 2.0 percentage points higher.