Jerome model: Clinton with very clear lead in Maryland
The Jerome model provided an updated forecast of the election result. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 60.8% for Clinton and 39.2% for Trump in Maryland.
Putting the results in context
Single econometric models may incorporate large errors, and should be interpreted with caution. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, research in forecasting recommends to rely on combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.
Comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models in Maryland has Clinton at 61.1% of the two-party vote. Relative to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 0.3 percentage points better.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 3.9 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 64.7% in Maryland. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 7.7 percentage points higher.