Louisiana: Jerome model shows Trump in the lead

The Jerome model released an updated forecast of the election result. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 46.7% for Clinton and 53.3% for Trump in Louisiana.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, you should not rely too much on the results of an individual econometric model. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, research in forecasting recommends to consult combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Louisiana sees Trump at 57.5% of the two-party vote. This value is 4.2 percentage points higher than his respective numbers in the Jerome model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 57.7% of the two-party vote in Louisiana, which is 4.4 percentage points above the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 6.4 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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