Jerome model: Clinton in Idaho trails by a very clear margin

The Jerome model published an updated forecast of the election result. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 32.1% for Clinton and 67.9% for Trump in Idaho.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, since they often incorporate large errors. At least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Trump currently runs at 68.8% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Idaho. Relative to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 0.9 percentage points better.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 64.6% of the two-party vote in Idaho, which is 3.3 percentage points below the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 21.0 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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