Connecticut: Jerome model shows Clinton in the lead

The Jerome model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model's forecast is that Clinton will receive 53.5% of the two-party vote share in Connecticut, whereas Trump will win 46.5%.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models should be interpreted with caution, because they may include substantial biases. At least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of Connecticut econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 55.1%. Compared to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.6 percentage points better.

The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's forecast

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 54.6% of the two-party vote in Connecticut, which is 1.1 percentage points above the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 0.4 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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