California: Jerome model shows Clinton in the lead

The Jerome model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 53.3% for Clinton and 46.7% for Trump in California.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models should be regarded with caution, since they often incorporate large biases. At least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of California econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 56.6%. Compared to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 3.3 percentage points higher.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 6.3 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 59.6% in California. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 0.2 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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