Alaska: Jerome model shows Trump in the lead

The Jerome model provided an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will garner 30.9% of the two-party vote share in Alaska, while Trump will end up with 69.1%.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models may incorporate substantial errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, you should rely on combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of Alaska econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 64.6%. Relative to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 4.5 percentage points lower.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 8.3 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 60.8% in Alaska. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 22.2 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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