Alabama: Jerome model shows Trump in the lead

The Jerome model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 45.6% for Clinton and 54.4% for Trump in Alabama.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, one should not be overly confident the results of a single econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, forecasting research recommends to look at combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Alabama sees Trump at 59.3% of the two-party vote. Relative to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 4.9 percentage points higher.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 60.2% of the two-party vote in Alabama, which is 5.8 percentage points above the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 7.5 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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