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Jerome model in Washington: Clinton with small lead


The Jerome model provided an updated prediction of the election result. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 52.8% for Clinton and 47.2% for Trump in Washington.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models can incorporate substantial biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Clinton currently achieves 54.1% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Washington. Relative to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.3 percentage points better.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 55.9% of the two-party vote in Washington, which is 3.1 percentage points above the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 0.3 percentage points lower.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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