Maine: Jerome model shows Clinton in the lead
The Jerome model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model's forecast is that Clinton will receive 55.2% of the two-party vote share in Maine, whereas Trump will end up with 44.8%.
Putting the results in context
Single econometric models should be regarded with caution, as they can include large errors. Rather, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
Clinton currently achieves 55.4% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Maine. This value is 0.2 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the Jerome model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 0.1 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 55.1% in Maine. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 2.1 percentage points higher.