Hawaii: Jerome model shows Clinton in the lead

The Jerome model published an updated forecast of the election result. The model expects that Clinton will achieve 58.1% of the two-party vote share in Hawaii, whereas Trump will end up with 41.9%.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they may contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, the best practice is to look at combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of Hawaii econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 64.1%. In comparison to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 6.0 percentage points higher.

The Jerome model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 9.7 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 67.8% in Hawaii. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 5.0 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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