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Jerome model: Clinton is in the lead

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The Jerome model published an updated prediction of the election result. According to this model, Clinton will achieve 86.4% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 13.6%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not put too much trust in the results of a single econometric model. Rather, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models sees Clinton at 89.2% of the two-party vote. In comparison to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 2.8 percentage points higher.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 90.3% of the two-party vote, which is 3.9 percentage points above the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 33.3 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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