Jerome model: Clinton in Virginia trails by a clear margin

The Jerome model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 44.3% for Clinton and 55.7% for Trump in Virginia.

In Virginia, the popular vote is often close. This is why the state is commonly considered a purple state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models can incorporate substantial biases, and should be treated with caution. Rather, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Virginia sees Trump at 53.1% of the two-party vote. Relative to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 2.6 percentage points worse.

The Jerome model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 48.8% of the two-party vote in Virginia, which is 6.9 percentage points below the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 8.8 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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