Jerome model: Clinton in Texas trails by a small margin

The Jerome model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model's forecast is that Clinton will receive 46.8% of the two-party vote share in Texas, whereas Trump will end up with 53.2%.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models should be treated with caution, since they can contain substantial errors. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, the best practice scientific advice is to consult combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results compared to other econometric models

Trump currently achieves 57.0% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Texas. In comparison to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 3.8 percentage points higher.

The Jerome model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 56.0% of the two-party vote in Texas, which is 2.8 percentage points above the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 6.3 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.