Jerome model in Oklahoma: Trump with clear lead

The Jerome model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model predicts that Clinton will collect 43.2% of the two-party vote share in Oklahoma, whereas Trump will end up with 56.8%.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, since they may incorporate large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, one should rely on combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of Oklahoma econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 63.4%. Relative to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 6.6 percentage points higher.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 62.7% of the two-party vote in Oklahoma, which is 5.9 percentage points above the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 9.9 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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