Jerome model: Trump with clear lead in Indiana

The Jerome model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model's forecast is that Clinton will receive 43.4% of the two-party vote share in Indiana, while Trump will end up with 56.6%.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models may include substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Indiana has Trump at 57.3% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.7 percentage points higher than his respective numbers in the Jerome model.

The Jerome model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 55.5% of the two-party vote in Indiana, which is 1.1 percentage points below the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 9.7 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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