The Jerome model released an updated prediction of the election result. The model expects that Clinton will garner 42.8% of the two-party vote share in Arizona, whereas Trump will end up with 57.2%.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models can include substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
Trump currently runs at 57.3% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Arizona. Compared to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 0.1 percentage points higher.
The Jerome model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 54.1% of the two-party vote in Arizona, which is 3.1 percentage points below the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 10.3 percentage points higher.