The Issues and Leaders model published an updated prediction of the election result. The model predicts that Clinton will garner 52.2% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 47.8%.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single index models, because they can contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single index models, the evidence-based approach is to use combined index models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Results compared to other index models
In comparison to the average results of other index models Clinton performed worse with 1.6 percentage points, while Trump did better with 1.6 percentage points.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
Clinton has 0.9 percentage points less and Trump has 0.9 percentage points more when the results of the index model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.