Issues and Leaders model shows Clinton in the lead

The Issues and Leaders model published an updated prediction of the election result. The model predicts that Clinton will garner 52.2% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 47.8%.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single index models, because they can contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single index models, the evidence-based approach is to use combined index models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results compared to other index models

In comparison to the average results of other index models Clinton performed worse with 1.6 percentage points, while Trump did better with 1.6 percentage points.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

Clinton has 0.9 percentage points less and Trump has 0.9 percentage points more when the results of the index model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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