The Issue-index model released an updated forecast of the election result. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 55.1% for Clinton and 44.9% for Trump. In comparison, on August 14 Trump was predicted to achieve 44.6% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual index models may contain substantial errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather than relying on results from single index models, forecasting research recommends to look at combined index models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Comparison to other index models
In comparison to the average results of other index models Clinton performed better with 1.3 percentage points, while Trump did worse with 1.3 percentage points.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
Clinton has 2.0 percentage points more and Trump has 2.0 percentage points less when the results of the index model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.