Issue-index model: Clinton with comfortable lead

The Issue-index model released an updated forecast of the election result. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 55.1% for Clinton and 44.9% for Trump. In comparison, on August 14 Trump was predicted to achieve 44.6% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual index models may contain substantial errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather than relying on results from single index models, forecasting research recommends to look at combined index models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other index models

In comparison to the average results of other index models Clinton performed better with 1.3 percentage points, while Trump did worse with 1.3 percentage points.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

Clinton has 2.0 percentage points more and Trump has 2.0 percentage points less when the results of the index model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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