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Iowa: Clinton and Trump virtually tied in latest DeSart model


The DeSart model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model forecasts that Clinton will obtain 50.6% of the two-party vote share in Iowa, while Trump will win 49.4%.

Historically, Iowa has been a battleground state, in which no single party has had overwhelming support to secure its electoral college votes. Therefore, predictions in this state are of particular value.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, since they can incorporate large errors. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, the recommended strategy look at combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.

Results vs. other econometric models

If we look at an average of Iowa econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 52.5%. In comparison to her numbers in the DeSart model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.9 percentage points higher.

The DeSart model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 51.2% of the two-party vote in Iowa, which is 0.6 percentage points above the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 2.5 percentage points lower.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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