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Jerome model: Trump in Iowa trails by a moderate margin

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The Jerome model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model forecasts that Clinton will garner 54.3% of the two-party vote share in Iowa, whereas Trump will win 45.7%.

Historically, Iowa has been a purple state, in which neither the Democrats nor the Republicans have had overwhelming support to clinch that state's electoral college votes. Hence, forecasts here are of particular importance.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Hence, a good strategy is to not rely too much on the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, forecasting research recommends to consult combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results compared to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Iowa has Clinton at 52.4% of the two-party vote. Compared to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.9 percentage points worse.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 51.2% of the two-party vote in Iowa, which is 3.1 percentage points below the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 1.2 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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