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Georgia: DeSart model shows Trump in the lead

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The DeSart model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 43.4% for Clinton and 56.6% for Trump in Georgia.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Hence, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of a single econometric model. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, the recommended strategy rely on combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of Georgia econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 54.5%. This value is 2.1 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the DeSart model.

The DeSart model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 3.9 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 52.7% in Georgia. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 9.7 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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