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DeSart model in Florida: Trump with small lead


The DeSart model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to this model, Clinton will achieve 48.0% of the two-party vote share in Florida, while Trump will end up with 52.1%.

Florida is traditionally a purple state, where the Republican and Democratic candidates have historically gained similar voter support. Therefore, the election outcome here is considered critical in determining which party will win the majority of electoral votes.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models may incorporate large biases, and should be treated with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results vs. other econometric models

Trump is currently at 50.6% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Florida. In comparison to his numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 1.5 percentage points worse.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 2.7 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 49.4% in Florida. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 5.2 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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