DeSart model: Clinton in Texas trails by a very clear margin

The DeSart model released an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 39.2% for Clinton and 60.9% for Trump in Texas.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, you should not be overly confident the results of a single econometric model. At the very least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Trump is currently at 57.1% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Texas. Compared to his numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 3.8 percentage points worse.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 4.9 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 56.0% in Texas. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 14.0 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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