DeSart model: Trump with comfortable lead in North Carolina

The DeSart model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 46.4% for Clinton and 53.6% for Trump in North Carolina.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. In general, one should not have too much faith in the results of a single econometric model. At least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results vs. other econometric models

Trump is currently at 53.2% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in North Carolina. This value is 0.4 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the DeSart model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 50.6% of the two-party vote in North Carolina, which is 3.0 percentage points below the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 6.7 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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