DeSart model: Trump with clear lead in Arizona
The DeSart model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 42.7% for Clinton and 57.3% for Trump in Arizona. In comparison, on August 14 Trump was predicted to obtain 0.0% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single econometric models should be treated with caution, as they can include large biases. At the very least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models in Arizona has Trump at 57.2% of the two-party vote. In comparison to his numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 0.1 percentage points worse.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 3.5 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 53.8% in Arizona. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 10.3 percentage points higher.