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DeSart model: Clinton with clear lead in Washington


The DeSart model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model expects that Clinton will obtain 55.4% of the two-party vote share in Washington, while Trump will end up with 44.6%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Hence, a good strategy is to not have too much confidence in the results of an individual econometric model. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, the best practice scientific advice is to consult combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Washington sees Clinton at 54.1% of the two-party vote. Compared to her numbers in the DeSart model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.3 percentage points lower.

The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 0.5 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 55.9% in Washington. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 2.3 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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