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DeSart model: Clinton with very clear lead in Vermont

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The DeSart model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to this model, Clinton will collect 66.5% of the two-party vote share in Vermont, whereas Trump will win 33.5%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of an individual econometric model. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, research in forecasting recommends to consult combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Vermont has Clinton at 60.4% of the two-party vote. In comparison to her numbers in the DeSart model Clinton's econometric model average is 6.2 percentage points worse.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 5.8 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 60.7% in Vermont. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 13.4 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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