DeSart model: Clinton in Utah trails by a very clear margin

The DeSart model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model's forecast is that Clinton will achieve 21.8% of the two-party vote share in Utah, whereas Trump will end up with 78.2%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not rely too much on the results of a single econometric model. At the very least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of Utah econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 71.4%. In comparison to his numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 6.8 percentage points lower.

The DeSart model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 15.3 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 62.9% in Utah. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 31.3 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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