DeSart model in South Dakota: Trump is in the lead
The DeSart model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 37.9% for Clinton and 62.1% for Trump in South Dakota.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, don't rely too much on the results of an individual econometric model. Rather, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
Looking at an average of South Dakota econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 59.5%. In comparison to his numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 2.6 percentage points worse.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 59.3% of the two-party vote in South Dakota, which is 2.8 percentage points below the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 15.2 percentage points higher.