DeSart model: Trump in New Mexico trails by a small margin
The DeSart model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model forecasts that Clinton will garner 53.0% of the two-party vote share in New Mexico, while Trump will end up with 47.0%.
Putting the results in context
Single econometric models often include substantial errors, and should be treated with caution. Rather, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results vs. other econometric models
Clinton currently runs at 52.6% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in New Mexico. This value is 0.4 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the DeSart model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 0.3 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 53.3% in New Mexico. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 0.1 percentage points lower.