DeSart model in Montana: Trump is in the lead
The DeSart model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 40.2% for Clinton and 59.8% for Trump in Montana.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models should be interpreted with caution, as they often incorporate substantial errors. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, research in forecasting recommends to rely on combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Comparison to other econometric models
Trump currently runs at 57.2% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Montana. This value is 2.6 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the DeSart model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 57.1% of the two-party vote in Montana, which is 2.7 percentage points below the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 12.9 percentage points higher.