DeSart model: Clinton in Mississippi trails by a clear margin
The DeSart model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 41.4% for Clinton and 58.6% for Trump in Mississippi.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models can include large errors, and should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
Looking at an average of Mississippi econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 56.2%. This value is 2.4 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the DeSart model.
The DeSart model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 53.8% of the two-party vote in Mississippi, which is 4.8 percentage points below the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 11.7 percentage points higher.