Massachusetts: DeSart model shows Clinton in the lead
The DeSart model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 62.6% for Clinton and 37.4% for Trump in Massachusetts.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. As a result, one should not put too much trust in the results of a single econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, we recommend to look at combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes different methods and data.
Comparison to other econometric models
Clinton currently achieves 62.1% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Massachusetts. This value is 0.5 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the DeSart model.
The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's forecast
The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 1.5 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 64.1% in Massachusetts. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 9.5 percentage points higher.