DeSart model: Trump in Maryland trails by a very clear margin

The DeSart model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model forecasts that Clinton will garner 61.4% of the two-party vote share in Maryland, while Trump will win 38.6%.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they often incorporate large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, we recommend to use combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results compared to other econometric models

Looking at an average of Maryland econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 61.1%. Relative to her numbers in the DeSart model Clinton's econometric model average is 0.3 percentage points lower.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 64.7% of the two-party vote in Maryland, which is 3.3 percentage points above the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 8.3 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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