DeSart model in Kentucky: Trump with very clear lead
The DeSart model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 35.5% for Clinton and 64.5% for Trump in Kentucky.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models should be treated with caution, since they can contain substantial errors. Rather, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results compared to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models in Kentucky sees Trump at 58.3% of the two-party vote. Compared to his numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 6.2 percentage points lower.
The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's forecast
The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 4.6 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 59.9% in Kentucky. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 17.6 percentage points higher.