DeSart model: Clinton in Kansas trails by a very clear margin
The DeSart model published an updated forecast of the election result. The model predicts that Clinton will obtain 36.0% of the two-party vote share in Kansas, whereas Trump will end up with 64.0%.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not have too much confidence in the results of an individual econometric model. At least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
Looking at an average of Kansas econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 60.1%. This value is 3.9 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the DeSart model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 57.8% of the two-party vote in Kansas, which is 6.2 percentage points below the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 17.1 percentage points higher.