DeSart model: Clinton in Kansas trails by a very clear margin

The DeSart model published an updated forecast of the election result. The model predicts that Clinton will obtain 36.0% of the two-party vote share in Kansas, whereas Trump will end up with 64.0%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not have too much confidence in the results of an individual econometric model. At least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of Kansas econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 60.1%. This value is 3.9 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the DeSart model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 57.8% of the two-party vote in Kansas, which is 6.2 percentage points below the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 17.1 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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