DeSart model: Trump in Illinois trails by a moderate margin

The DeSart model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model's forecast is that Clinton will garner 53.6% of the two-party vote share in Illinois, whereas Trump will end up with 46.4%.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models often include large biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. At the very least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton currently achieves 54.0% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Illinois. In comparison to her numbers in the DeSart model Clinton's econometric model average is 0.4 percentage points better.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 57.3% of the two-party vote in Illinois, which is 3.7 percentage points above the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 0.5 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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