DeSart model: Trump with very clear lead in Idaho

The DeSart model published an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will receive 30.4% of the two-party vote share in Idaho, while Trump will win 69.6%.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they can incorporate large errors. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, one should rely on combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Trump currently runs at 68.7% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Idaho. This value is 0.9 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the DeSart model.

The DeSart model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 5.0 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 64.6% in Idaho. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 22.7 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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