DeSart model in Arkansas: Trump is in the lead
The DeSart model published an updated prediction of the election result. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 34.8% for Clinton and 65.2% for Trump in Arkansas.
Putting the results in context
Single econometric models often contain large errors, and should be treated with caution. Rather, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
Trump currently achieves 58.6% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Arkansas. This value is 6.6 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the DeSart model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 8.2 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 57.0% in Arkansas. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 18.3 percentage points higher.