DeSart model: Clinton in Arizona trails by a clear margin

The DeSart model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model's forecast is that Clinton will garner 42.7% of the two-party vote share in Arizona, while Trump will win 57.3%.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, since they sometimes incorporate large errors. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, one should look at combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Trump can currently count on 57.2% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Arizona. This value is 0.1 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the DeSart model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 54.1% of the two-party vote in Arizona, which is 3.2 percentage points below the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 10.4 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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