DeSart model: Trump in Connecticut trails by a clear margin

The DeSart model published an updated prediction of the election result. According to this model, Clinton will achieve 56.6% of the two-party vote share in Connecticut, while Trump will end up with 43.4%.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models may include substantial errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to other econometric models

If we look at an average of Connecticut econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 55.0%. Compared to her numbers in the DeSart model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.6 percentage points lower.

The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's forecast

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 54.6% of the two-party vote in Connecticut, which is 2.0 percentage points below the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 3.5 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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