DeSart model: Clinton in Alabama trails by a very clear margin
The DeSart model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model's forecast is that Clinton will receive 35.8% of the two-party vote share in Alabama, whereas Trump will win 64.2%.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models should be regarded with caution, as they can include large biases. At the very least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results vs. other econometric models
Trump can currently count on 59.3% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Alabama. This value is 4.9 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the DeSart model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 4.0 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 60.2% in Alabama. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 17.3 percentage points higher.