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New DeSart model in Colorado: Clinton and Trump neck-and-neck


The DeSart model published an updated forecast of the election result. The model's forecast is that Clinton will collect 50.4% of the two-party vote share in Colorado, while Trump will win 49.7%.

Colorado is traditionally a purple state, where the Democrats and the GOP have historically achieved similar levels of voter support. Therefore, the election outcome here is viewed as important in determining who will win the majority of electoral votes.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models often contain substantial biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, research in forecasting recommends to consult combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of Colorado econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 52.1%. This value is 1.7 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the DeSart model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 54.2% of the two-party vote in Colorado, which is 3.8 percentage points above the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 2.7 percentage points lower.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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