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Rothschild model: Trump in Colorado trails by a very clear margin


The Rothschild model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote. According to this model, Clinton will garner 68.0% of the two-party vote share in Colorado, while Trump will win 32.0%.

In Colorado, the popular vote is usually close. This is the reason why the state is commonly regarded as a purple state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models should be regarded with caution, since they often contain large biases. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, research in forecasting recommends to look at combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.

Results compared to other econometric models

Clinton can currently count on 52.0% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Colorado. Compared to her numbers in the Rothschild model Clinton's econometric model average is 16.0 percentage points worse.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 54.2% of the two-party vote in Colorado, which is 13.8 percentage points below the results of the Rothschild model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 14.9 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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