FOX 12/KPTVFOX 12/KPTV released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Oregon were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
FOX 12/KPTVFOX 12/KPTV poll results
The results show that 43.0% of respondents will give their vote to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 32.0% are going to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted between May 6 and May 9. The sample size was 902 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-3.3 percentage points, which means that the poll results for the candidates of both parties differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls may incorporate substantial errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 57.3% for Clinton and 42.7% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
An average of recent polls in Oregon has Clinton at 51.5% of the two-party vote. This value is 5.8 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the FOX 12/KPTVFOX 12/KPTV poll. This margin is outside the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 54.2% of the two-party vote in Oregon. Hence, Polly's prediction is 3.1 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin shows that this deviation is negligible.